Trump's mini-revival comes at the expense of the “Other” camp, which has seen its presidential odds plummet from +2000 to +6600. Both Gary Johnson (Libertarian) and Jill Stein (Green) have seen their credibility wane as potential “protest” votes, although Johnson still projects to receive about 5% of the popular vote, a big step up from 1% in 2012.
Given the events of the last few weeks, Clinton figures to have betting value at –500. But her victory isn't assured; there may be more polling error than usual in this fractious campaign, and if Independent hopeful Evan McMullin wins Utah's six electoral votes, it's possible that none of the candidates will amass the required 270 votes in the Electoral College. That would force Congress to decide the next president. Anything could happen at that point – even a McMullin presidency.
Politics Odds: Clinton, Trump Both See Presidential Odds ShiftIt's been a disastrous two weeks for Donald Trump's presidential campaign, but his odds of winning the November 8 election have improved from +375 to +300 as Hillary Clinton's odds have moved from –550 to –600 and back down to –500.
That's because the “Other” camp has lost steam among disaffected voters seeking a third option. The field, including Gary Johnson (Libertarian), Jill Stein (Green) and Evan McMullin (Independent), has fallen from +2000 to +6600 on the political futures market. Their best hope is that McMullin wins Utah, where he's tied with Trump at press time, and forces a stalemate in the Electoral College.