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Monday, May 29, 2017

Politics Odds: Trump’s POTUS Chances Take a Tumble

Things have taken a turn for the worse in the Donald Trump administration. A series of stunning events and revelations has put a major dent in Trump’s chances of completing an entire term; at press time, he’s priced at –160 to leave office before his four years are up. It could even happen in 2017 (+150), although this could easily drag out into 2018 (+250) and beyond.

The past two weeks have been incredibly bad for Trump, but the biggest issue on his table is the naming of former FBI Director Robert Mueller as special counsel in the investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election – and any possible cover-up by the Trump team. This has drawn comparisons to the Watergate scandal that forced Richard Nixon to retire in 1974 before he could be impeached.

Aside from the Russians, there’s one key difference: The Republicans control both the House of Representatives and the Senate as well as the White House. But that could change after the 2018 mid-term elections. The Democrats will have to overcome gerrymandering and voter suppression efforts to win, but if they do, impeachment proceedings are almost certain if Trump is still in office by then.

Live odds and lines

Politics Odds: How Long Will Trump Last?

After two weeks of scandal and embarrassment, Donald Trump’s odds of completing a full term as POTUS have fallen to +120. He could even be done before the end of 2017 (+150), depending on how quickly things unravel at the White House.

Trump’s chances took a tumble after former FBI Director Robert Mueller was appointed as special counsel to investigate any ties and/or cover-up between the Trump team and Russian operatives. But unless the Democrats win the 2018 mid-term elections, this process could take a while. Trump remains +120 to last as POTUS until 2020 or later.

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